MENG XiaoJun; WANG Lu; Susan CHAN; Kathleen Heather REILLY; PENG ZhiHang; GUO Wei; DING GuoWei; DING ZhengWei; QIN QianQian

doi:10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China

MENG XiaoJun, WANG Lu, Susan CHAN, Kathleen Heather REILLY, PENG ZhiHang, GUO Wei, DING GuoWei, DING ZhengWei, QIN QianQian

文章导航 > Biomedical and Environmental Sciences > 2011 > 24(4): 343-348

MENG XiaoJun, WANG Lu, Susan CHAN, Kathleen Heather REILLY, PENG ZhiHang, GUO Wei, DING GuoWei, DING ZhengWei, QIN QianQian. Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2011, 24(4): 343-348. doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

Citation:

MENG XiaoJun, WANG Lu, Susan CHAN, Kathleen Heather REILLY, PENG ZhiHang, GUO Wei, DING GuoWei, DING ZhengWei, QIN QianQian. Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2011, 24(4): 343-348. doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206, China
Department of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu,China

摘要: Objective The migrant population is a vulnerable group for HIV infection in China.Understanding potential epidemic trends among migrants is critical for developing HIV preventative measures in this population.Methods The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence and epidemic trends for migrant populations in China.Results The prevalence of HIV among migrants in 2009 was estimated at 0.075％ (95％ CI:0.042％,0.108％) in China.The HIV epidemic among migrants is likely to increase over the next 5 years,with the prevalence expected to reach 0.110％(95％ CI:0.070％,0.150％) by 2015.Conclusion Although the 2009 estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China indicate a slower rate of increase compared with the national HIV/AIDS epidemic,it is estimated to persistently increase among migrants over the next 5 years.Migrants will have a strong impact on the overall future of the HIV epidemic trend in China and evidence-based prevention and monitoring efforts should be expanded for this vulnerable population.
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Abstract: Objective The migrant population is a vulnerable group for HIV infection in China.Understanding potential epidemic trends among migrants is critical for developing HIV preventative measures in this population.Methods The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence and epidemic trends for migrant populations in China.Results The prevalence of HIV among migrants in 2009 was estimated at 0.075％ (95％ CI:0.042％,0.108％) in China.The HIV epidemic among migrants is likely to increase over the next 5 years,with the prevalence expected to reach 0.110％(95％ CI:0.070％,0.150％) by 2015.Conclusion Although the 2009 estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China indicate a slower rate of increase compared with the national HIV/AIDS epidemic,it is estimated to persistently increase among migrants over the next 5 years.Migrants will have a strong impact on the overall future of the HIV epidemic trend in China and evidence-based prevention and monitoring efforts should be expanded for this vulnerable population.
- China /
- Transients and migrants /
- Estimation and projection package /
- HIV/AIDS

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Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China

doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

刊出日期: 2011-08-20

关键词:

China /

Transients and migrants /

Estimation and projection package /

HIV/AIDS

摘要: Objective The migrant population is a vulnerable group for HIV infection in China.Understanding potential epidemic trends among migrants is critical for developing HIV preventative measures in this population.Methods The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence and epidemic trends for migrant populations in China.Results The prevalence of HIV among migrants in 2009 was estimated at 0.075％ (95％ CI:0.042％,0.108％) in China.The HIV epidemic among migrants is likely to increase over the next 5 years,with the prevalence expected to reach 0.110％(95％ CI:0.070％,0.150％) by 2015.Conclusion Although the 2009 estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China indicate a slower rate of increase compared with the national HIV/AIDS epidemic,it is estimated to persistently increase among migrants over the next 5 years.Migrants will have a strong impact on the overall future of the HIV epidemic trend in China and evidence-based prevention and monitoring efforts should be expanded for this vulnerable population.

English Abstract

Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206, China

Department of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu,China

Publish Date: 2011-08-20

Keywords:

Abstract: Objective The migrant population is a vulnerable group for HIV infection in China.Understanding potential epidemic trends among migrants is critical for developing HIV preventative measures in this population.Methods The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence and epidemic trends for migrant populations in China.Results The prevalence of HIV among migrants in 2009 was estimated at 0.075％ (95％ CI:0.042％,0.108％) in China.The HIV epidemic among migrants is likely to increase over the next 5 years,with the prevalence expected to reach 0.110％(95％ CI:0.070％,0.150％) by 2015.Conclusion Although the 2009 estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China indicate a slower rate of increase compared with the national HIV/AIDS epidemic,it is estimated to persistently increase among migrants over the next 5 years.Migrants will have a strong impact on the overall future of the HIV epidemic trend in China and evidence-based prevention and monitoring efforts should be expanded for this vulnerable population.

Citation:

MENG XiaoJun, WANG Lu, Susan CHAN, Kathleen Heather REILLY, PENG ZhiHang, GUO Wei, DING GuoWei, DING ZhengWei, QIN QianQian. Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2011, 24(4): 343-348. doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

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doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China

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Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China

doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004

English Abstract

Estimation and Projection of the HIV Epidemic Trend among the Migrant Population in China

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206, China Department of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu,China

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National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206, China

Department of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu,China