Assessing Heat-related Mortality Risks in Beijing, China

LI Tian Tian; GAO Yan Lin; WEI Zai Hua; WANG Jing; GUO Ya Fei; LIU Fan; LIU Zhao Rong; CHENG Yan Li

doi:10.3967/0895-3988.2012.04.011

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Volume 25 Issue 4

Aug. 2012

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Article Navigation > Biomedical and Environmental Sciences > 2012 > 25(4): 458-464

LI Tian Tian, GAO Yan Lin, WEI Zai Hua, WANG Jing, GUO Ya Fei, LIU Fan, LIU Zhao Rong, CHENG Yan Li. Assessing Heat-related Mortality Risks in Beijing, China[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2012, 25(4): 458-464. doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2012.04.011

Citation:

LI Tian Tian, GAO Yan Lin, WEI Zai Hua, WANG Jing, GUO Ya Fei, LIU Fan, LIU Zhao Rong, CHENG Yan Li. Assessing Heat-related Mortality Risks in Beijing, China[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2012, 25(4): 458-464. doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2012.04.011

Assessing Heat-related Mortality Risks in Beijing, China

doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2012.04.011

Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
Center for Atmosphere Watch and Services, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, CMA, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China(40905069%41110104015)%The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Science Foundation for Youth(2011A206)

Abstract

Objective To obtain the exposure-response relationship for temperature and mortality,and assess the risk of heat-related premature death.Methods A statistical model was developed using a Poisson generalized linear regression model with Beijing mortality and temperature data from October 1st,2006 to September 30th,2008.We calculated the exposure-response relationship for temperature and mortality in the central city,and inner suburban and outer suburban regions.Based on this relationship,a health risk model was used to assess the risk of heat-related premature death in the summer (June to August) of 2009.Results The population in the outer suburbs had the highest temperature-related mortality risk.People in the central city had a mid-range risk,while people in the inner suburbs had the lowest risk.Risk assessment predicted that the number of heat-related premature deaths in the summer of 2009was 1581.The city areas of Chaoyang and Haidian districts had the highest number of premature deaths.The number of premature deaths in the southern areas of Beijing (Fangshan,Fengtai,Daxing,and Tongzhou districts) was in the mid-range.Conclusion Ambient temperature significantly affects human mortality in Beijing.People in the city and outer suburban area have a higher temperature-related mortality risk than people in the inner suburban area.This may be explained by a temperature-related vulnerability.
- Temperature,
- Mortality,
- Premature death,
- Health risk,
- Generalized linear regression model,
- Climate change
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通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

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沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

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Assessing Heat-related Mortality Risks in Beijing, China

doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2012.04.011

Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China

Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China

College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

Center for Atmosphere Watch and Services, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, CMA, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China(40905069%41110104015)%The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Science Foundation for Youth(2011A206)

Key words:

Abstract: Objective To obtain the exposure-response relationship for temperature and mortality,and assess the risk of heat-related premature death.Methods A statistical model was developed using a Poisson generalized linear regression model with Beijing mortality and temperature data from October 1st,2006 to September 30th,2008.We calculated the exposure-response relationship for temperature and mortality in the central city,and inner suburban and outer suburban regions.Based on this relationship,a health risk model was used to assess the risk of heat-related premature death in the summer (June to August) of 2009.Results The population in the outer suburbs had the highest temperature-related mortality risk.People in the central city had a mid-range risk,while people in the inner suburbs had the lowest risk.Risk assessment predicted that the number of heat-related premature deaths in the summer of 2009was 1581.The city areas of Chaoyang and Haidian districts had the highest number of premature deaths.The number of premature deaths in the southern areas of Beijing (Fangshan,Fengtai,Daxing,and Tongzhou districts) was in the mid-range.Conclusion Ambient temperature significantly affects human mortality in Beijing.People in the city and outer suburban area have a higher temperature-related mortality risk than people in the inner suburban area.This may be explained by a temperature-related vulnerability.

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