Dynamic Characteristic Analysis of HIV Mother to Child Transmission in China

JUN-JIE WANG; KATHLEEN HEATHER REILLY; HUA HAN; ZHI-HANG PENG; NING WANG

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Volume 23 Issue 5

Oct. 2010

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Article Navigation > Biomedical and Environmental Sciences > 2010 > 23(5): 402-408

JUN-JIE WANG, KATHLEEN HEATHER REILLY, HUA HAN, ZHI-HANG PENG, NING WANG. Dynamic Characteristic Analysis of HIV Mother to Child Transmission in China[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2010, 23(5): 402-408.

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JUN-JIE WANG, KATHLEEN HEATHER REILLY, HUA HAN, ZHI-HANG PENG, NING WANG. Dynamic Characteristic Analysis of HIV Mother to Child Transmission in China[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2010, 23(5): 402-408.

Dynamic Characteristic Analysis of HIV Mother to Child Transmission in China

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China
National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China;Tulane University Health Sciences Center, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA
National ASIC Design Engineering Center, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210029, China

Funds: the 11th Five-Year Plan(2008ZX10001-003)%the International Clinical Research Fellows Program at Vanderbilt(R24 TW007988)

Abstract

Objective to explore dynamic characteristics of the HIV mother to child transmission(MTCT)epidemic in China.Methods A deterministic dynamic transmission model was used to determine the effect of key parameters on the likely long-term trends of the HIV MTCT epidemic in China.Matlab 7.0 was used to develop the model. Results The number of the susceptibles(S),the transmission rate(β),and the screening proportion(a)of HIV positive pregnant women have the greatest impact on the HIV MTCT epidemic in China.The growth of the MTCT epidemic in China could not be controlled only by decreasing the MTCT transmission rate.The prevalence of HIV positive women should be reduced and more pregnant women should be tested for HIV Conclusion Prevention of MTCT(PMTCT)should focus not only on the reduction of HIV transmission rates and incidences of HIV among women but also on the increase of HIV testing for pregnant women.The most cost-effective PMTCT means for China should be investigated in future studies.
- mother to child transmission,
- dynamic model,
- HIV,
- China
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通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

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沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

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Dynamic Characteristic Analysis of HIV Mother to Child Transmission in China

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China;Tulane University Health Sciences Center, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA

National ASIC Design Engineering Center, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210029, China

Funds: the 11th Five-Year Plan(2008ZX10001-003)%the International Clinical Research Fellows Program at Vanderbilt(R24 TW007988)

Key words:

Abstract: Objective to explore dynamic characteristics of the HIV mother to child transmission(MTCT)epidemic in China.Methods A deterministic dynamic transmission model was used to determine the effect of key parameters on the likely long-term trends of the HIV MTCT epidemic in China.Matlab 7.0 was used to develop the model. Results The number of the susceptibles(S),the transmission rate(β),and the screening proportion(a)of HIV positive pregnant women have the greatest impact on the HIV MTCT epidemic in China.The growth of the MTCT epidemic in China could not be controlled only by decreasing the MTCT transmission rate.The prevalence of HIV positive women should be reduced and more pregnant women should be tested for HIV Conclusion Prevention of MTCT(PMTCT)should focus not only on the reduction of HIV transmission rates and incidences of HIV among women but also on the increase of HIV testing for pregnant women.The most cost-effective PMTCT means for China should be investigated in future studies.

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