Evaluation and Estimation of the Provincial Infant Mortality Rate in China’s Sixth Census

HU Song Bo; WANG Fang; YU Chuan Hua

doi:10.3967/bes2015.058

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Volume 28 Issue 6

Jun. 2015

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Article Navigation > Biomedical and Environmental Sciences > 2015 > 28(6): 410-420

HU Song Bo, WANG Fang, YU Chuan Hua. Evaluation and Estimation of the Provincial Infant Mortality Rate in China’s Sixth Census[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(6): 410-420. doi: 10.3967/bes2015.058

Citation:

HU Song Bo, WANG Fang, YU Chuan Hua. Evaluation and Estimation of the Provincial Infant Mortality Rate in China’s Sixth Census[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(6): 410-420. doi: 10.3967/bes2015.058

Evaluation and Estimation of the Provincial Infant Mortality Rate in China’s Sixth Census

doi: 10.3967/bes2015.058

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, China
School of Science, Jiujiang College, Jiujiang 332005, Jiangxi, China

Funds: This research is supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation of China:A Study on the Mortality Pattern of Chinese Population and Related Statistical Models(81273179)%China’s sixth census excluds the data of Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Taiwan

Abstract

Objective To assess the data quality and estimate the provincial infant mortality rate (1q0) from China’s sixth census.
Methods A log-quadratic model is applied to under-fifteen data. We analyze and compare the average relative errors (AREs) for 1q0 between the estimated and reported values using the leave-one-out cross-validation method.
Results For the sixth census, the AREs are more than 100% for almost all provinces. The estimated average 1q0 level for 31 provinces is 12.3‰for males and 10.7‰for females.
Conclusion The data for the provincial 1q0 from China’s sixth census have a serious data quality problem. The actual levels of 1q0 for each province are significantly higher than the reported values.
- Infant mortality rate,
- The sixth census,
- AREs
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通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

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沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

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Evaluation and Estimation of the Provincial Infant Mortality Rate in China’s Sixth Census

doi: 10.3967/bes2015.058

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, China

School of Science, Jiujiang College, Jiujiang 332005, Jiangxi, China

Key words:

Abstract: Objective To assess the data quality and estimate the provincial infant mortality rate (1q0) from China’s sixth census.
Methods A log-quadratic model is applied to under-fifteen data. We analyze and compare the average relative errors (AREs) for 1q0 between the estimated and reported values using the leave-one-out cross-validation method.
Results For the sixth census, the AREs are more than 100% for almost all provinces. The estimated average 1q0 level for 31 provinces is 12.3‰for males and 10.7‰for females.
Conclusion The data for the provincial 1q0 from China’s sixth census have a serious data quality problem. The actual levels of 1q0 for each province are significantly higher than the reported values.

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