Volume 27 Issue 7
Jul.  2014
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ZHANG Jing, LI Tian Tian, TAN Jian Guo, HUANG Cun Rui, andKAN Hai Dong. Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(7): 485-494. doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080
Citation: ZHANG Jing, LI Tian Tian, TAN Jian Guo, HUANG Cun Rui, andKAN Hai Dong. Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(7): 485-494. doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080

Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities

doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080
Funds:  the Gong-Yi Program of Ministry of Environmental Protection(201209008)%the Open Funds of Key Lab of Climate and Health of Shanghai(QXJK201205)
  • ObjectiveTo study therelationbetween temperature andmortalitybyestimatingthe temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. MethodsData of daily mortality, weather and air pollutioninthe three citieswere collected.A distributed lag nonlinear model wasestablishedand used in analyzing theeffects oftemperatureon mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. ResultsThe association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, withanincreased death riskof both hot and cold temperature in thesecities. The effects of cold temperatureonhealth lasted longer thanthoseof hot temperature.Theprojected temperature-related mortality increasedwith the decreasedcold-related mortality.Themortalitywas higher inGuangzhouthan inBeijing and Shanghai. ConclusionThe impact of temperatureonhealth varies inthe 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.
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通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

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Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities

doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080
Funds:  the Gong-Yi Program of Ministry of Environmental Protection(201209008)%the Open Funds of Key Lab of Climate and Health of Shanghai(QXJK201205)

Abstract: ObjectiveTo study therelationbetween temperature andmortalitybyestimatingthe temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. MethodsData of daily mortality, weather and air pollutioninthe three citieswere collected.A distributed lag nonlinear model wasestablishedand used in analyzing theeffects oftemperatureon mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. ResultsThe association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, withanincreased death riskof both hot and cold temperature in thesecities. The effects of cold temperatureonhealth lasted longer thanthoseof hot temperature.Theprojected temperature-related mortality increasedwith the decreasedcold-related mortality.Themortalitywas higher inGuangzhouthan inBeijing and Shanghai. ConclusionThe impact of temperatureonhealth varies inthe 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.

ZHANG Jing, LI Tian Tian, TAN Jian Guo, HUANG Cun Rui, andKAN Hai Dong. Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(7): 485-494. doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080
Citation: ZHANG Jing, LI Tian Tian, TAN Jian Guo, HUANG Cun Rui, andKAN Hai Dong. Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(7): 485-494. doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080

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