Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities

ZHANG Jing; LI Tian Tian; TAN Jian Guo; HUANG Cun Rui; andKAN Hai Dong

doi:10.3967/bes2014.080

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Volume 27 Issue 7

Jul. 2014

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Article Navigation > Biomedical and Environmental Sciences > 2014 > 27(7): 485-494

ZHANG Jing, LI Tian Tian, TAN Jian Guo, HUANG Cun Rui, andKAN Hai Dong. Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(7): 485-494. doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080

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ZHANG Jing, LI Tian Tian, TAN Jian Guo, HUANG Cun Rui, andKAN Hai Dong. Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(7): 485-494. doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080

Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities

doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080

School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Institute, SMB, Shanghai 200030, China
School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia

Funds: the Gong-Yi Program of Ministry of Environmental Protection(201209008)%the Open Funds of Key Lab of Climate and Health of Shanghai(QXJK201205)

Abstract

ObjectiveTo study therelationbetween temperature andmortalitybyestimatingthe temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. MethodsData of daily mortality, weather and air pollutioninthe three citieswere collected.A distributed lag nonlinear model wasestablishedand used in analyzing theeffects oftemperatureon mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. ResultsThe association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, withanincreased death riskof both hot and cold temperature in thesecities. The effects of cold temperatureonhealth lasted longer thanthoseof hot temperature.Theprojected temperature-related mortality increasedwith the decreasedcold-related mortality.Themortalitywas higher inGuangzhouthan inBeijing and Shanghai. ConclusionThe impact of temperatureonhealth varies inthe 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.
- Climate change,
- Temperature,
- Mortality,
- Time-series
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通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

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沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

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Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities

doi: 10.3967/bes2014.080

School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China

Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Institute, SMB, Shanghai 200030, China

School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia

Funds: the Gong-Yi Program of Ministry of Environmental Protection(201209008)%the Open Funds of Key Lab of Climate and Health of Shanghai(QXJK201205)

Key words:

Abstract: ObjectiveTo study therelationbetween temperature andmortalitybyestimatingthe temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. MethodsData of daily mortality, weather and air pollutioninthe three citieswere collected.A distributed lag nonlinear model wasestablishedand used in analyzing theeffects oftemperatureon mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. ResultsThe association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, withanincreased death riskof both hot and cold temperature in thesecities. The effects of cold temperatureonhealth lasted longer thanthoseof hot temperature.Theprojected temperature-related mortality increasedwith the decreasedcold-related mortality.Themortalitywas higher inGuangzhouthan inBeijing and Shanghai. ConclusionThe impact of temperatureonhealth varies inthe 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.

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